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Ever since I got involved in politics, I’ve accurately predicted every national election cycle in America. And I’m here to do it once more.
Pollsters are infamous for missing the mark. But history shows we can still use their data to figure out where the midterms will land. I used this method in 2022 and 2024, and was proven right both times.
Despite popular belief, pollsters not directly on a campaign’s payroll have a real incentive to be accurate. When they get it wrong, they lose credibility, and media outlets look elsewhere. That dynamic is a double-edged sword: accuracy might improve, but so does hedging. It’s the reason races always seem to tighten and pollsters cluster around an average as Election Day nears.
Take a look at polling accuracy over the past two decades, though, and it tells an interesting story about GOP voters.
On average, polling this century has been off by about 2.6%. This margin of error can often be explained by conservatives’ reluctance to answer pollsters honestly, compared to liberals who tend to be more open about their politics.
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Some well-meaning, though overly optimistic, conservatives have claimed this year’s polling will be off by three times that amount. I think that’s both inaccurate and unhelpful. I predict, once again, the polls will be off by 2-3%.
What does this mean?
Senate
For the Senate, it means the following races that are currently leaning Democrat will actually flip to Republicans: Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and Minnesota. If Republicans do win those four seats, they will retain the Senate with 51 seats.
Now, it’s important to bear in mind that this assumes Abdul El-Sayed wins his race in Michigan, and James Talarico wins his in Texas. Both are largely considered among the most radical politicians running in their party this cycle, and larger swings than 3% may happen as a result.
House
In the House, Republicans face a much tougher battle. Current projections show Democrats holding a strong position, even before factoring in the tightest races. According to forecast models, while there are a number of true toss-up districts, Democrats are currently polling favorably enough to threaten the majority.
What Republicans do have going for them, however, is the redistricting battle. After a slew of legal challenges and map amendments over the last two years, Republicans have secured a net advantage in newly drawn districts. This structural edge alone could keep them from losing too much ground to the Democrats.
My prediction
Republicans will not take the House, but they won’t lose the Senate, either. When the dust settles, I believe Republicans will hold 51 to 52 Senate seats, keeping Trump safe from removal.
They won’t have as much luck in the lower chamber. I predict Republicans won’t pick up many toss-up districts, leaving them with roughly 200 to 210 total seats, while Democrats will control 225 to 235.
What can you expect for 2027 and 2028? A congressional deadlock. Trump will not be removed from office, but his legislative agenda won’t be passed, either. We’ll have to wait for 2029 to try to advance conservative legislation once again.
