Help us defeat and replace the mainstream media!
Support PolitiBrawl by becoming a paid subscriber today:
Ever since I got involved in politics, I’ve accurately predicted every national election cycle in America. And I’m here to do it once more.
Pollsters are infamous for missing the mark. But history shows we can still use their data to figure out where the midterms will land. I used this method in 2022 and 2024, and was proven right both times.
Despite popular belief, pollsters not directly on a campaign’s payroll have a real incentive to be accurate. When they get it wrong, they lose credibility, and media outlets look elsewhere. That dynamic is a double-edged sword: accuracy might improve, but so does hedging. It’s the reason races always seem to tighten and pollsters cluster around an average as Election Day nears.
Take a look at polling accuracy over the past two decades, though, and it tells an interesting story about GOP voters.
On average, polling this century has been off by about 2.6%. This margin of error can often be explained by conservatives’ reluctance to answer pollsters honestly, compared to liberals who tend to be more open about their politics.
Kalshi’s American Power Index
A first-in-class composite measure of political control. Updating in real-time from Kalshi's underlying prediction market data, the American Power Index draws on the wisdom of the crowd to answer a simple question: How is the balance of power in America changing?
Get $25 in credit to trade on Kalshi after you sign up using our code “brawl” or by using our link.
Kalshi supports independent media like PolitiBrawl!
(Piece continues):
Some well-meaning, though overly optimistic, conservatives have claimed this year’s polling will be off by three times that amount. I think that’s both inaccurate and unhelpful. I predict, once again, the polls will be off by 2-3%.
What does this mean?
Senate
For the Senate, it means the following races that are currently leaning Democrat will actually flip to Republicans: Iowa, Maine, Alaska, and Minnesota. If Republicans do win those four seats, they will retain the Senate with 51 seats.
Now, it’s important to bear in mind that this assumes Abdul El-Sayed wins his race in Michigan, and James Talarico wins his in Texas. Both are largely considered among the most radical politicians running in their party this cycle, and larger swings than 3% may happen as a result.
House
In the House, Republicans face a much tougher battle. Current projections show Democrats holding a strong position, even before factoring in the tightest races. According to forecast models, while there are a number of true toss-up districts, Democrats are currently polling favorably enough to threaten the majority.
What Republicans do have going for them, however, is the redistricting battle. After a slew of legal challenges and map amendments over the last two years, Republicans have secured a net advantage in newly drawn districts. This structural edge alone could keep them from losing too much ground to the Democrats.
My prediction
Republicans will not take the House, but they won’t lose the Senate, either. When the dust settles, I believe Republicans will hold 51 to 52 Senate seats, keeping Trump safe from removal.
They won’t have as much luck in the lower chamber. I predict Republicans won’t pick up many toss-up districts, leaving them with roughly 200 to 210 total seats, while Democrats will control 225 to 235.
What can you expect for 2027 and 2028? A congressional deadlock. Trump will not be removed from office, but his legislative agenda won’t be passed, either. We’ll have to wait for 2029 to try to advance conservative legislation once again.
Sorry, but your prediction is incredibly disheartening. Losing the House is no small thing. Mike Johnson, imo, is an outstanding leader. It would be tragic if any one of the 🤮democrats would take his position. They are increasingly abhorrent, perhaps most seen in not giving a rat's ass about the safety and security of their fellow Americans.
I think it is very doubtful Talarico can win in Texas and Paxton wins. I doubt Sayed wins in Michigan as too many democrats are publicly walking away. That said, Michigan hasn’t elected a Republican in a long time, but the Democrats haven’t ran anyone so polarizing. Republicans have many paths to get to 53 senate seats.
While a GOP fantasy, Fetterman cannot win reelection as a Democrat as he can’t win the primary, but if he switches to the GOP, he more than likely retains his seat. He could switch parties if the GOP in the Senate should somehow fall to 49 or even 50. You heard it here first, though him switching are pretty long odds.
With the successful lawsuits against Fulton Country and obvious supervision, there is even a slight chance Georgia could flip. NC has tightened, but the Democrat candidate and former governor is just too popular. While I would dance a jig if Minnesota flipped, Democrats could hold. It is a pretty corrupt state in so many ways. I also wouldn’t be surprised if NH flipped, but Pappas is still strong even against a well respected GOP family name in the state.
As far as the house, the polls have moved aggressively to the GOP and that should continue. House seats typically go to the party who spends the most money 94% of time. GOP is outspending Democrats in every race, lead in voter registrations, lead in redistricting, and have strong ground games, and early voting has been decidedly Republican, with Democrat turnout down, and Republican turnout constant or up. Trump is campaigning hard and is energizing the base, and it is a mistake to underestimate him as democrats tend to do every election.
I think the Republicans do better than 210 and might even retain the house. The GOP could literally be as close as ending up with 214-220.
This is probably the last competitive House race for Democrats in the next fourteen years, especially if there are further redistricting (there will be in Indiana and Missouri for sure), and/or the Save America bill passes, and/or especially if citizens are the only ones counted in the census.
Trump and the GOPs legal teams are already out in full force. Lawsuits have already been filed in AZ, GA, and CA. Monitoring will be on an all-time high.
Lastly, there is no blue wave. While I mostly agree with Republicans +3% nationally, it could easily be closer to 4-5% in current red states. There could also easily be an October surprise that is not factored in which can come more easily from the GOP. We’ll see.